Tracking Wealth Through the AI Lens
Tracking Wealth Through the AI Lens
So, CoreWeave. The darling of the AI data center world. Up 120% since March? Give me a break. That kind of rocket-ship trajectory usually ends with a spectacular crash and burn. And offcourse, everyone's screaming about 10x returns in five years. Seriously? How Buying CoreWeave Stock Today Could 10X Your Net Worth
Deloitte says AI data center capacity is gonna explode. Okay, sure. More data, more AI, more… power-hungry servers. I get it. But 36% annual growth for the next eleven years? That's like saying pet rocks are gonna make a comeback. Possible? Maybe. Likely? I ain't betting my rent money on it.
They’re touting this $55.6 billion revenue backlog like it’s solid gold. But a backlog is just a promise, right? A "we might buy this much stuff from you" kind of promise. Forty percent of that gets recognized in two years, another 39% in the next two? What happens if the AI winter comes early? What happens when some new, shiny tech makes their GPU-powered data centers about as useful as a Betamax player?
And then there's the insider selling. Always a red flag, isn't it? They bought a measly $1.8 million in shares but dumped $405 million worth. Yeah, yeah, "it was at a higher price than now." Doesn't exactly scream confidence, does it? They're happy to take profits, but are they truly believing in the long-term vision? I'm not convinced.
I mean, Wall Street’s all over the place on this one. Compass Point’s waving the pom-poms with a $150 price target, while J.P. Morgan’s basically saying, "Hold your horses, folks." Who do you trust? The guys who need to generate buzz, or the ones who (supposedly) do their homework?
Nvidia owns 7% of CoreWeave. And they’ve got this $6.3 billion "capacity guarantee" thing going on. Sounds cozy, right? But let's be real: Is this a sign of faith, or just Nvidia making sure their GPUs don't end up gathering dust?
It's like a landlord guaranteeing the rent on an apartment they own in a building they also own. Sure, it looks good on paper, but it's mostly just shuffling money from one pocket to another.
CoreWeave says they're adding data centers like crazy. 590 megawatts of capacity across 41 data centers. Sounds impressive. But how much of that is actually being used? How much is just sitting there, waiting for the AI revolution to actually, you know, happen?
And CEO Michael Intrator blaming "temporary delays" for the reduced revenue forecast? That’s corporate-speak for "we screwed up, but don't panic."
They're pulling numbers out of thin air, projecting revenue based on... hope? Assuming CoreWeave grows at the same rate as the entire data center market (36% annually), they'll hit $46 billion in revenue by 2030. Then, multiply that by the tech sector's price-to-sales ratio (which could be completely different in five years), and BAM! $414 billion market cap.
It's like building a house on a foundation of dreams and unicorn farts. Too many assumptions, too many variables.
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe AI will take over the world, and CoreWeave will become the next Amazon. Maybe I should just shut up and buy as much crwv stock price as I can afford.
But I won't.