Tracking Wealth Through the AI Lens
Tracking Wealth Through the AI Lens
Kalshi: Is This the Future of Prediction Markets or Just Gambling Dressed Up in a Suit?
Okay, let's talk about Kalshi. This thing is either genius or the dumbest idea since… well, since crypto. And that's saying something.
So, Joel Holsinger quits his day job to trade on Kalshi, making a few grand a week. Good for him, I guess. But then he loses $700 betting on whether the White House press secretary would mention "Thanksgiving" in relation to a government shutdown? Give me a break. Is this what we've come to? Are we seriously wagering on the most mundane, predictable BS imaginable?
Kalshi lets you "invest" – and I use that term very loosely – in over 3,500 markets. Fine. But then I see they're taking bets on who's gonna be a bridesmaid in Taylor Swift's wedding? Seriously? This isn't investing; it's the "gamblification," as that "Losing Big" author Jonathan Cohen calls it, of American culture on steroids.
And don't even get me started on the fact that online sports betting is legal in 31 states, but Kalshi’s available in all 50. That sounds… fishy.
In the 2024 election, Kalshi called the presidential race before freakin' Fox News. Okay, that's kinda impressive, I'll admit. During the New York City mayoral race, Zohran Mamdani cited Kalshi odds showing his chances of victory in the 90s. Did that actually happen? I gotta look that up. But assuming it did, is that how we want our politicians making decisions? Based on a glorified betting pool? Wanna bet? Online prediction markets wager that you will - CBS News
And then the Biden administration tried to stop Kalshi from offering sports markets. Why? Because they're killjoys or because they saw this whole thing was spiraling out of control? I don't know.
Oh, and Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to Kalshi and its rival Polymarket. Of course he is. Why am I not surprised? You just knew the Trumps would find a way to get their fingers in this pie.
Massachusetts is trying to shut down Kalshi's sports markets, calling it unlawful sports wagering. Sounds about right. But is it really that different from DraftKings or FanDuel? What’s the actual difference, legally speaking? I'm not a lawyer, so offcourse, I wouldn't know.
The owner of the New York Stock Exchange is investing $2 billion in Polymarket. So, Wall Street is jumping on the bandwagon. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of its legitimacy, is it? It just means there's money to be made. And where there's money to be made, you'll find Wall Street vultures circling.
FanDuel is launching its own prediction market next month. Great. Just what we need: more ways to lose money on stupid bets. Are people really going to treat this like an investment, or is it just going to be another way to scratch that gambling itch?
Kalshi's co-founders are former Wall Street traders. Shocker. They've got "systems to monitor for suspicious activity and trading prohibitions." Yeah, right. Just like every other financial institution that's ever been caught doing something shady. I'm sure they're totally on top of everything and there's absolutely no way anyone could manipulate the system.
But then again, maybe I'm just being cynical. Maybe this is the future of finance. Maybe we'll all be betting on everything from the weather to the outcome of congressional debates.
