The QBTS Stock Hype: What's Behind the JPMorgan Pump and If You Should Actually Care

So, let me get this straight. You’re telling me D-Wave Quantum is up over 3,700% in a year? And Rigetti is up 5,700%? And the whole sector is rocketing into the stratosphere because of a lab experiment and a press release from JPMorgan?

Give me a break.

I’ve been watching these tech hype cycles for longer than most of these "quantum" startups have existed, and they all have the same smell. It’s the smell of cheap money chasing a ghost, a desperate scramble for the "next big thing" now that the AI chatbot party is starting to feel a little stale. We’re watching a full-blown speculative fever dream unfold in real time, and everyone’s pretending it’s based on something tangible.

It’s not. It’s based on a story. And right now, Wall Street is telling one hell of a bedtime story about quantum computing.

The Quantum Kool-Aid Is Strong

The narrative machine is working overtime on this one. First, you get the "breakthrough." IonQ announces they’ve done some fancy quantum chemistry simulation with a car company. They can now calculate "nuclear forces" better than a supercomputer. Sounds impressive, right? They’re talking about designing new materials for carbon capture, revolutionizing drug discovery, and creating next-gen batteries. It’s a beautiful vision.

But what does it actually mean for the bottom line today? Or tomorrow? Or even next year? The details on that are, shall we say, a bit fuzzy.

Then, just as the applause for the science trick is dying down, the big money swoops in to legitimize the whole affair. In walks JPMorgan, waving around a plan to invest up to $10 billion in "key tech sectors." And wouldn't you know it, they specifically name-drop quantum computing. The result? Quantum stocks surge after JPMorgan investing push into strategic tech. It’s all wrapped in the patriotic flag of a "$1.5 trillion initiative to support U.S. national security."

This is the oldest trick in the book. It’s like a magic show. The company on stage (IonQ, D-Wave, take your pick) performs a dazzling feat that nobody in the audience truly understands. Then, a well-dressed, respectable assistant from the front row—in this case, Jamie Dimon—stands up and confirms that what you just saw was, in fact, real magic. The crowd goes wild and starts throwing money. But is it magic, or just a very clever illusion? And how much of this "national security" push is just a convenient excuse to funnel money into high-risk, high-reward tech bets that might otherwise look insane?

This isn’t about building a better America; it’s about building a better stock portfolio. Let’s be real. Tossing in a mention of former President Trump and his National Quantum Initiative Act just adds another layer of political cover to the whole thing. It makes a wild gamble sound like a civic duty. It’s brilliant, and it’s deeply cynical.

Let's Talk About Reality for a Second

Okay, let's step away from the press releases and look at the numbers these companies are actually posting. You know, the boring stuff that supposedly matters.

D-Wave, the company with the 3,700% stock surge, posted a second-quarter operating loss of $26.5 million on just $3.1 million in revenue. Read that again. They lost nearly nine times what they brought in. Their price-to-sales multiple is a comical 336. Rigetti is in the same boat, with a $19.9 million operating loss on a measly $1.8 million in revenue. Their revenue actually declined 42%.

This is a bad business. No, "bad" doesn't cover it—this is a five-alarm dumpster fire of a balance sheet. These aren't businesses; they're cash-burning machines attached to a stock ticker and a prayer. They are completely, utterly dependent on investor optimism and a firehose of funding to stay alive. And when the story is this good, the money keeps flowing. For now.

Rigetti’s whole strategy is to be the "picks-and-shovels" provider, like Nvidia is for AI. It's a smart-sounding pitch. But are we supposed to ignore the fact that the picks-and-shovels play only works if there’s actually a gold rush, and not just a bunch of guys selling maps to a mythical mine? The fact sheet itself admits we have "no idea when (or even if) this technology will be ready for primetime." It could be years. It could be decades.

And what about IonQ, the supposed leader of the pack? Wall Street analysts have a "Moderate Buy" rating on it, but their own average price target implies a 20% downside from its current price. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s a coded warning that says, "We have to be bullish on this sector, but for God's sake, don't buy it right now." This whole thing is just...

I’m so tired of this. It’s the same pattern, over and over. A new, barely-understood technology emerges. A few companies with no profits and a good story become the poster children. The media hypes it, big banks give it their blessing, and retail investors pile in, terrified of missing out. Some people will get rich, offcourse. But a lot more are going to be left holding the bag when the hype dies down and people start asking the hard questions again. Questions like, "So, when are you guys actually going to make any money?"

Same Circus, Different Clowns

At the end of the day, this ain't about quantum mechanics. It’s about market dynamics. It's about a flood of capital looking for a home, and a story so futuristic and complex that nobody can definitively prove it wrong. Investing in these companies right now isn't a bet on technology. It's a bet that someone else will be willing to pay you more for your shares tomorrow. That’s it. It’s the Greater Fool Theory dressed up in a lab coat. And while the show is fun to watch, I sure as hell wouldn't buy a ticket.